10 Years After The Real Estate Crash

It’s been 10 long years since the real estate crash that came before the Great Recession and all the economic misery that followed.

It may be the perfect time to take a giant step back, peruse and analyze all of the data, and assess what has really happened to the American housing market in the decade since.

 

As many clients are asking me, where are we now?

Steep home prices…check. Buyers clamoring to get into those homes… check. New to the game real estate investors scooping up homes to renovate quickly and sell for a profit (i.e., flip)…. check.

At first or second glance, things are looking similar to the real estate boom that preceded the epic bust.

….But wait, there’s no need to start stuffing your life savings under your mattress just yet. If you look beneath the surface, there are key differences between then and now.

It is said best by said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, “As we compare today’s market dynamics to those of a decade ago, it’s important to remember rising prices didn’t cause the housing crash.” “It was rising prices stoked by subprime and low-documentation mortgages, as well as people looking for short-term gains—versus today’s truer market vitality—that created the environment for the crash.”

By contrast, today’s housing market is characterized by a mismatch between significant job and household growth (the factors that spur people to buy homes) and much tighter lending standards and historically low for-sale inventory (the factors that make it difficult for people to buy new homes). The result: extremely high home prices and a lot of frustrated buyers.

 

For another quick review, below are the top 5 ‘San Diego Real Estate Vital Signs’ that I focus on in order to give my clients the best idea of where the market is going.

As of the end of September, here are the stats:

1. Existing Home Sales, up 9.5% as a year over year change

2. New Home Building Permits, and they are up 8.3% as a year over year change

3. Notice Of Defaults, down 10% year over year

4. Foreclosure Sales, down 48% year over year

5. Interest Rates, Stable at 3.83% year over year

All of the above ‘Vital Sign’ information came from the US Census Bureau, Core Logic and PropertyRadar.com

***I thank you again for all your past and present business. When you want help with anything real estate related, call me at 858-225-7385 or email me at Brad@BradBrinkman.com . You can count on us to give you clarity on how to achieve your real estate goals!